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Archive for the ‘Tournament Statistics’ Category

Average Actual Playing Time

August 7, 2010 3 comments

I compiled the data from all of the match reports from the FIFA 2010 World Cup into a spreadsheet.  Here’s what I found in terms of Actual Playing Time:

In the average 90-minute match at the 2010 World Cup, the average actual playing time in a match that had a winner was 68.0 minutes.  The average actual playing time for matches that ended in a draw was 67.2 minutes, a difference of less than one minute.

What’s this mean?  Well, a couple things.  First, these APT calculations INCLUDE the stoppage time, so even when the referee adds in time to a match, teams generally play 22-23 minutes less than the “full 90.”  Second, the consistency between APT during matches with a winner and those ending in a draw is surprising.  It suggests that regardless of the score, there can be incentives for time wasting.

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New Links to World Cup Numbers

August 7, 2010 Leave a comment

Just published another article on the USA 10 Kit: my overview of the averages for shots, APT, and fouls committed for teams that win, lose, or draw.  Check it out here.

While I was working on that article, I found a post on Attacking Soccer from last month that had a number of interesting quick-hit statistics about the World Cup.

Categories: General News, World Cup

Updated: US Results by Opponent

August 1, 2010 Leave a comment

Ever wanted to know exactly how the US has performed against a specific country or region?  The complete match history of the MNT is available on various web sites, but if you wanted to know totals, you were on your own.  Now, you can simply check out our page: US Results by Opponent.

Every US MNT match from November 15, 2000 through the 2010 World Cup is represented (with the U.S. team’s complete match history forthcoming).  You can see win/loss/draw stats by region and opponent as well as our goals for and against.

I hope you enjoy the page — it took a fair share of work, but seemed like the kind of basic US MNT statistic that should be available to fans.

Categories: Tournament Statistics

Writing for The USA 10 Kit

July 28, 2010 1 comment

As I alluded to yesterday, the folks at The USA 10 Kit are giving me a chance to join them.  I’m really excited about this opportunity and look forward to your continued support.

My first story, What Made Charlie Davies Great?, is up on the site now.  It is a comparison of Davies’ stats from the Confederations Cup and Robbie Findley’s stats from the World Cup.  If you have a chance, please check it out.

Teams that foul less, win more

July 15, 2010 Leave a comment

Based on our calculations, you can determine who won a match in the 2010 World Cup knockout rounds by looking at who committed fewer fouls.  In 11 of the 16 matches, the cleaner team won.  (We define “win” as a victory without resorting to a shootout.)  One team, Paraguay, committed fewer fouls than its opponent, Japan, and won in the shootout.  Two matches had teams tie on fouls committed.  And two teams played cleaner than their opponent but still lost.

OUR DATA

If you define a positive outcome as either a non-shootout win or a tie (to be broken in a shootout), here are the odds that winning a statistic will coincide with a positive outcome.  Based, for the moment, on just the knockout round results. Read more…

Shots on Goal: Chance of being held scoreless

July 15, 2010 Leave a comment

Emboldened by FIFA’s recognition that players are rated based on what’s statistically likely to happen as the result of their actions and not necessarily what does, I thought I’d highlight an interesting piece of information: the value of a shot on goal.

As previously noted, it has been commonly and consistently observed that roughly 24% of shots on goal result in goals.  So I thought I’d take that information and calculate roughly your chance of being held scoreless based on the number of shots you put on goal.

                                     Shots on Goal
   1   2   3   4   5   6   7    8 12
76% 58% 44% 33% 25% 19% 15% 11% 4%

As you can see, the big action is statistically on the early shots on goal.  Take one SOG and you’ve got a 76% chance of being scoreless.  Take another one, you’ve got a 58% chance of being scoreless (an 18% drop).  The third shot drops you down another 14%.  And the fourth, another 11%.  Of course, each new SOG has its own 24% chance of going into the net, but if you are lucky enough to go 5-6 SOGs without conceding, you have to be thinking the soccer gods are smiling upon you.

The obvious limitation of this analysis is that momentum exists and can affect the outcome of matches.  When it’s in your favor, your goalie becomes superhuman.  When it’s against you, well, you know what happens.  For the time being, let’s assume that being scored upon shifts momentum against you and that you are less likely to both (a) score and (b) prevent a goal.  If this were true, teams like the U.S. that allow opponents to put together dangerous attacks early, are playing with statistical fire.  Give up the first three SOGs and six out of ten matches, you’re going to be behind at least one goal early.

MNTs: 2002 vs. 2010

June 27, 2010 Leave a comment

In reading the reactions to the Ghana loss, the discussion commonly returns to the 2002 team, the one that actually advanced out of the Round of 16.  Over the past year, the topic’s been addressed by a variety of sources.  Rather than rehash those articles, I’ll post links to them here for you to peruse at your leisure.